Horse racing tips: 11-1 shot will relish the soft ground and can bolt up at Catterick

There will be plenty of interest in Black Corton, the mount of Bryony Frost. The pair have formed a formidable team this season and should be thereabouts. Elegant Escape has stamina as his strong suit and should make a bold show. Ballyoptic is too inconsistent to have too much faith in but there is no denying his ability. “But by the time he got to the winning post he was miles away and gone.

Breeders’ Cup 2024 at Del Mar: a look at Aidan O’Brien’s team on Saturday night

The Glancing Queen will no doubt be well fancied for the feature race, but she hasn’t been the soundest jumper over hurdles and is worth opposing on her chase debut. Donald McCain is on a tremendous run of form (35% Strike Rate last 14 days) and there is every reason to believe she could add to the stables recent successes. If Chacun Pour Soi runs and wins at the Dublin Racing Festival this weekend – he’s currently a best priced 4/9 so to do – he’ll be shorter for the winning margin bets and odds on for the Champion Chase. If he doesn’t run, he’ll be circa evens on the day assuming he shows up. But, like I say, I think he’s a more robust animal this season, and I’m prepared to back that perception.

Bond Spirit

Last year’s runner-up Popmaster is a big price and United Approach can reward each-way backers. Five-time Irish champion Colin Keane takes the ride and that is a huge plus. Last year’s impressive winner Inspiral is a class act but it’s hard to have any confidence in her given she has blown the start on her last three runs.

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So it is that, again excepting the impostor Lord W, every other Gold Cup scorer this century has returned 12/1 or shorter. Joseph O’Brien won this in 2019 with Band Of Outlaws, and saddles Champion Green this time. A relative slow starter he broke his maiden at the fourth time of asking, over nine furlongs at Punchestown. The second won next time and was rated 89 when taking on handicappers for the first time, the third – also trained by Joseph – has won a couple of minor hurdle races, and the fourth won a Leopardstown maiden next time.

About Bangor-on-Dee Racecourse

Two tries at the track, both at the Festival, have yielded two victories; the Bumper score was by a narrow margin, his Ballymore victory more unequivocal. He beat 13 rivals the first day and eleven the second and, well, he just keeps winning. The way to play this, if you’re so inclined, is to back Concertista at 6/5 and Honeysuckle at 5/4, both non-runner no bet. Most likely, you’ll have 6/5 about an odds-on shot and money back on the other; second most likely is that you’ll have 5/4 about a 4/7 shot and a poor value back up ticket. That may not sound exciting right now but it is odds on to look value on the day.

• The  link to this market (at the bottom, in the ‘lengthen the odds’ section) is here.
• Delta Work is the reigning champ, having retained his crown a year ago, and bids for the three-peat (as they say across the pond – yuk).
• The main event on Day One is the Champion Hurdle, a two mile Grade 1 where the reigning champion, Honeysuckle, will bid to defend her crown.
• In spite of the small field the Supreme remains a competitive race with five horses at single figure prices.

Dundalk (IRE) Tips

His progressive chase form over three miles plus is enough to put him in with a solid shout anyway, but it was his latest performance, when chasing home the smart Our Duke over 2½ miles that underlines his class. The trip would have been plenty sharp enough for Presenting Percy – he had won over 3m 5f two runs earlier – yet he traded blows with a horse that is third favourite for Friday’s Timico Gold Cup. As the coming week progresses the ground will be drying which brings a number of factors into play.

• He apparently scoped dirty after the race and there has been some whispering about back spasms, both of which appear to have now been resolved.
• If they aren’t currently available, please check back later; they are generally available around 16 hours before the meeting starts.
• Both of those might be expected to eke out a little improvement; and look at the contextual snippets block – accessed by clicking the trainer icon (with the red box around it).
• When you’re placing your bets, you’ll come across jargon specific to horse racing and betting.
• Contributing to creating and maintaining this Ayr Gold Cup Preview are at hand, Andy and James.
• Paddy Power and Betfair are ahead of the pack here with their range of in-play options, which are handily accessible so you make quick decisions after the race has got underway.

All of Ireland will be screaming for Samcro – and there’s no Cheltenham thrill like it

Madara rates a mention as a progressive 5yo with a 3-3 record on testing ground, and he went to Ireland to spank the local handicappers at the DRF. That allowance was 6lb when he won at Cheltenham two starts back and still 3lb at Leopardstown but has now been eroded entirely. It won’t stop him, as such, but he’s effectively 19lb higher than when beating In Excelsis Deo two starts back, and I don’t think it has been factored into his price. There are lots of poorly handicapped horses in this race and it’s not hard to whittle the field down to horses well enough treated who can cope with the conditions and the Cheltenham fences. Most of his best form is on a sounder surface, as when fourth in the Gold Cup two years ago; but he’s raced mainly on softer recently. Indeed, he was second to Delta Work in this race a year ago and was down the field in the two handicap chases over the track/trip late last year.

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Paul Nicholls has enjoyed enjoyed a relative resurgence in the last two renewals courtesy of that hat-trick of Grade 1 scores. He comes to Cheltenham Festival 2021 in similar form to 2019. It is fair to say that nobody really knows what to expect of the Cullentra House yard, currently fronted by Denise Foster while Gordon Elliott serves out his suspension. What we do know is that flagbearers like Envoi Allen have been moved to other yards and that has to have a negative bearing on overall figures this time around.

Cheltenham Festival Stats for All Races

AND of course this type of favourite can be confidently predicted before the off. Just back the one that’s been given three quiet runs and a mark that’s well below what it’s really capable of. The two I like most are Libberty Hunter and Hardy du Seuil with the former looking really solid in the conditions. He would be unbeaten over fences but for overjumping on debut at Chepstow and has added wins at Wincanton and on the New Course here, beating Arkle hope Matata by a length in a 2m handicap in December. Those wins have come on heavy and soft ground and he coped well with the jumping test when scoring last time. A better question might be to ask which horses can put him under pressure, so let’s posit that one.

• The two wins were both achieved by the same horse, Buena Vista, in the same race, the Pertemps Final.
• Next in the lists, at 10/1, is Al Boum Photo, winner of the 2019 and 2020 Gold Cups and third last year.
• Brian does not say much but when he does speak, you listen.
• That leaves an opportunity on earlier shows to snaffle some value.
• Mind you, they did last season, CPS prevailing by most of four lengths.
• As the ground at Newcastle is already on the firm side of Good a fair amount of watering will be planned.
• The first of those was a steadily run small field heat, but the second, the Rossington Main at Haydock, was well contested and Jonbon came home in a good time.
• Shishkin is undeniably more of a horse than Footpad, and a tear up on the front end could see him record the largest winning distance of the meeting.

Robin Goodfellow’s racing tips: Best bets for Tuesday, April 19

Just imagine as they freewheel down the hill if he can exclaim, “Jack Kennedy and Samcro are making ground, he hasn’t moved a muscle”. 1m 7f  of Grade 1 jump racing coming up – can anyone stop the highly-rated Altior? He goes off at even-money after being punted into odds-on before the start. Altior looked to be struggling but his jockey held him together.

Brian Ellison was very confident that he was coming back to form when asked in a recent interview about his 9-year-old for Sky Sports Racing. From the surface underneath, to the topography of the track, to the tightness of the bends, every racecourse in Britain and Ireland is unique. Some will suit prominently ridden horses, others those ridden more patiently.

Flooring Porter has had issues in the build up; Home By The Lee is improving but has more to find… The French horse has had a perfect prep, and jumps brilliantly. MT – ‘Waited with’ run style can be a positive in the Ultima where plenty of jockeys go off too quickly.

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Despite his relative hurdling experience, IET can look a bit slovenly at a flight for all that he’s generally safe across them. The Ultima is the first handicap of the meeting and is a hyper-competitive race that can throw up some very useful performers. I really don’t like this race from a betting perspective. You have to make excuses for the horses at the top of the market where their price doesn’t allow for such latitude.

He is now 14lb higher in the handicap, but his Cheltenham win two starts ago gives him prospects here as the second top weight. Day one of the Newbury Greatwood meeting with tomorrow’s Greatwood Bolts Up Daily Gold Cup being the highlight. The going is Soft – Good to Soft in places on the chase course. The ground may ease again slightly with rain forecast before racing commences at 2.10.

Back Doddiethegreat at 7/1 with as many places as you can find (six generally, Skybet eight but a point shorter as I write). Bound to be a nice bit of pace on, and should be fair to most run styles. More Willies out front than a Festival urinal, and one of them will tow Ballyburn into the race if he doesn’t make his own running. Maintaining discipline and patience in your betting approach is essential for long-term success. Implementing prudent bankroll management strategies is crucial for sustaining long-term betting success.

Going a step further, I’d favour run style over draw in certain scenarios which I’ll come on to. And I’d especially favour a horse from a wide gate with an ostensibly uncontested lead. A wide-open renewal of this race, but it is still very hard to get away from GOOBINATOR. Donald McCain’s 5-year-old finished 4th in the Cesarewitch behind Buzz at Newmarket last month, beaten 8-lengths and on that evidence, he looks to be exceptionally well-handicapped on a mark of 126 over hurdles. He won under Brian Hughes at Ayr last October, on the same mark as he can race off today and he looks to have a favourites chance.

Evocative Spark

Yggdrasil is likely to be a popular choice given his unexposed profile and low weight, but he will have his work cut out against some seasoned campaigners and so it may be worth chancing the top weight, TIQUER. He is a 13-year-old and has had his issues, but with only 22 career starts, he has very few miles on the clock. He made a perfectly reasonable comeback at Newton Abbot 3 weeks ago when finishing third to Arian, beaten just 6-lengths and he now races in Class 4 for the first time in almost 5 years. Daryl Jacob has been booked for the ride and he makes some decent place appeal. Experience has counted for a lot in recent times, with nine of the past ten winners having four-plus seasonal runs and four-plus chase starts.

So we have come a long way without having to delve too deeply into the form book. The string of numbers to the left of each horse’s name are the form figures and they are places they have finished in their most recent races, reading from left to right with regards to their latest position. So if a horse has figures of , it would have won its last three races but finished sixth the time before. I’ve always been a big believer that it’s the best horse who wins the race and not necessarily the best trainer or jockey, but that’s a debate that continues to run.

They’re presented in race order, starting on Tuesday, Day 1… Sometimes you can spend a lot of time looking for something which, in the end, only tells you that there is probably nothing to be found. The Irish haven’t (quite) had it all their own way in the past five years at Cheltenham, and Britain’s top man – sometimes persisting in the wind – has been Nicky Henderson. Looking for correlation is difficult in what is, granted, a crowded table. And it is still more confusing when noting that comfortably Mullins’ poorest win strike rate (6.78% in 2019) produced his best ROI (+30.51%).

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Clicking on the trainer’s name reveals today’s runner(s), and clicking the little up arrow to the left hand side displays inline the relevant past performances – here we can see that one of the pair won and the other was third. HERMES BOY chased home subsequent Cheltenham winner I Like To Move It when finishing 2nd at Worcester 5 weeks ago. It is also worth noting that he ran well on debut over this Course and Distance on his bumper debut last season and if he can build on his debut over timber, he should win this race that looks to lack any real depth.

The Mullins third string is an unbeaten-in-one ‘could be anything’ type called Bring On The Night. A progressive three-year-old when trained in France by Andre Fabre, it was nigh on two years thereafter that he made his timber debut at Naas. Impressive he was, too, coming right away from a large field of maidens in spite of bungling the final flight. It should be remembered that a maiden in late February will be easier to win than one in late November, most of the runners already multiple non-winners by then. Willie was quite bullish about his ability in recent stable tour chat but I thought he might have gone Ballymore rather than here.

Before being sidelined last autumn, he was in the saddle when Envoi Allen stretched his unbeaten record to nine races in the Grade 1 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle. Russell was forced to miss the bulk of the latest National Hunt season – including the spring festivals at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown – and also sat out last month’s Galway Festival. Formerly trained on the Flat by David Menuisier, the grey made a successful debut over hurdles at Punchestown last month and was among the leading contenders on his return to the level. For De Sousa it was confirmation of a return to the very top in Britain, after his spell in Hong Kong ended prematurely following a 10-month suspension imposed for breaching betting rules. GOD’S OWN Has some solid form in his record but is a light of former days and hard to fancy.

Marie’s Rock had graduated to winning the Mares’ Hurdle and Love Envoi the Mares’ Novices Hurdle. If he can jump like he did at Kempton, then he ought to run really well for Anthony Honeyball, who was unlucky not to win this race with Ms Parfois a few years ago (winner Rathvinden would have been demoted under new whip rules). Like Ms Parfois, Kilbeg King will be ridden by Will Biddick, who has been the best English amateur at Cheltenham over the past decade and more. Salvador Ziggy has achieved as much as the pair above but is a more realistic price, with his second under 12st in the Kerry National a fine effort for a novice. He comes here after an abortive trip to run in the Grand National Hurdle at Far Hills in October, and while the absence might be a worry, he was second in the Pertemps last year off an identical lay-off. I’m struggling to make a case for any of Kings Hill, Supersundae and Gold Dancer.

Queen Anne helped to establish the Royal Ascot, one of the biggest races still in the British racing calendar. By the end of the 1830s, another of Britain’s great races – the Grand National – had been established at Aintree. This is one of the oldest sports in the UK by far, and interest in it has stayed steady throughout the years. This is a deep race and there’s plenty with chances including the likes of Corbett Cross and Three Card Brag. It is hard to put anyone off backing either of those too but with such a competitive renewal of this race I don’t want to get stuck into something at a shortish price.